2024 Olympic Games: What Canada’s women need to do to qualify

The group stage of the 2024 Olympic Games women’s soccer tournament draws to a close on Wednesday, with Canada’s women looking to overcome the odds and qualify despite having six points deducted over a drone-spying scandal.

Here’s what Canada needs to do to get through to the quarterfinals, and why it is in this position.

Why was Canada deducted six points?

Canada women’s soccer coach Bev Priestman was suspended from coaching for one year and the Canadian team penalized six points during the Olympics after FIFA investigated charges staff members used a drone to spy on an opponent’s closed practice session.

For the Canadian team, which is hoping to defend the gold medal it won at the Tokyo Olympics, a six-point penalty appeared to make it very difficult to advance to the knockout rounds, while Priestman — who coached as an assistant under Phil Neville with England’s women’s national team before taking over Canada in 2020 — is prohibited from “taking part in any football-related activity” for 12 months.

The sanctions, which also included a fine to the Canadian federation of about $226,000, were for violating “the applicable FIFA regulations in connection with its failure to ensure the compliance … with the prohibition on flying drones over any training sites,” FIFA said in its announcement.

Canada lodged an appeal with the Court of Arbitration for Sport, but it was rejected on Wednesday.

What’s the situation in Canada’s group

Canada had already beaten New Zealand 2-1 in their opening game when news of the points deduction came through. It sent Canada from second in Group A (host nation France was in first place on goals scored) on three points, to the very bottom on minus-3.

A bonus for Canada was that as there are only 12 teams in the women’s Olympic competition, so just four are eliminated at the group stage — eight make up the quarterfinals.

It still looked like a hopeless situation, but two wins would put Canada in some kind of contention — nothing else was good enough. Finishing on three points would at the very least provide the chance to qualify as one of the two best third-placed teams. As Canada would have won all three matches, its goal differential was going to be better than any other third-placed team on three points.

But then there was a twist.

In Sunday’s first match, Colombia won 2-0 against New Zealand — and that changed the whole dynamic for Canada. It now knew that two victories would definitely be enough. But could Canada do it?

Later that day, Canada took on France in Saint-Étienne but all looked lost. The game was headed for a 1-1 draw until in the 12th minute of stoppage time at the end of the match Vanessa Gilles — who plays in France for Lyon — scored a dramatic goal. Canada won 2-1 and was back in the contention.

What do Canada need to do to qualify?

Canada must win against Colombia (both games kickoff at 3 p.m. ET), and any kind of victory guarantees a place in the quarterfinals — regardless of the result in the other game between New Zealand and France.

Colombia’s win over New Zealand put it top the group on three points with a goal differential of plus-1. Canada is in third place in the group on zero points, but with goal differential of plus-2. Canada is guaranteed to finish above Colombia on goal differential if it wins.

With New Zealand (zero points) playing France (three points, goal differential 0) in the other game, only one of those two teams can finish above Canada. Even if New Zealand wins, to put all four teams on three points, France and Colombia’s goal differential will definitely be worse than Canada’s. Therefore any win puts Canada in the top two.

Had New Zealand beaten Colombia on Sunday, then Canada could have been locked out of the top two by a draw in the New Zealand-France game. It then would have been looking to results in other groups to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.

So Canada can win the whole group?

Yes, if Canada win all three matches, its six-point deduction gives a misleading impression of the group. Those six points are lost from the table when, usually, they would have gone to other teams via defeats.

If Canada and New Zealand both win, all four teams will be on three points, but Canada would almost certainly win the group as its goal differential is five better than New Zealand’s.

If Canada win while France win or draw, France top the group with Canada in second.

Who will Canada play in the quarterfinals?

If Canada win the group, it will play third place in Group B or C.

If it is runner-up, it will face the runner-up of Group B. That could be the United States but is more likely to be Germany or Australia.

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