Top 45 MLB free agents for 2024-25 with contract predictions, team fits: Will Soto get $600M+?
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- October 25, 2024
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MLB free agency is almost here so it’s time for my annual ranking of the top free agents with contract predictions and the best team fits for each player. Eligible players technically become free agents the day after the World Series ends but cannot sign with a new team until five days after the final out.
This year’s free-agent class will be headlined by Juan Soto, whom many in the industry expect to sign a contract in the $550 million to $650 million range. The top of the pool could feature four front-of-the-rotation pitchers, including Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and perhaps even Roki Sasaki, if the soon-to-be 23-year-old phenom makes it to free agency. In terms of position players, this class will have a pair of prominent power hitters in first baseman Pete Alonso and right fielder Anthony Santander and a couple of impact two-way corner infielders in first baseman Christian Walker and third baseman Alex Bregman.
This list will change between now and the start of free agency. Some of these players will come off the board if they decide not to opt out of their contracts or their clubs exercise options. Some could decide to retire. In addition, more international players could join the eventual class. (For this ranking, I’ve included any player who could reach free agency this November, even if in some cases that outcome is unlikely.)
Along with my colleagues at The Athletic, I will be actively covering free agency and the trade season from start to finish, so let’s discuss the current landscape. Here is my ranking of the top 45 free agents for the 2024-25 offseason, with my thoughts on the players as well as information from my conversations with decision-makers across the game. What types of contracts could these players command? These are my initial projections.
(Note: Players’ ages are as of Oct. 24. WAR is according to Baseball Reference as of Oct. 24.)
1. Juan Soto, OF
Age: 25
B: L T: L HT: 6-2 WT: 225
2024 (Yankees): 7.9 WAR
Career: 36.4 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $31 million
Has Juan Soto found his permanent home with the Yankees? Can they keep him after a strong platform year? He certainly lived up to expectations in his first year in the Bronx, slashing .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and a league-leading 128 runs scored. He’s expected to finish third in the American League MVP voting behind Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. He’s met the big moments in this postseason and has logged a 1.106 OPS.
By all indications, he’s poised to become the second-highest-paid player in baseball history, behind only Shohei Ohtani. He’s a generational talent who will hit free agency at only 26 and should be able to land a 15-year deal. Most executives believe he’ll end up somewhere between $550 million and $650 million, which will probably limit his market to both New York teams and possibly the Blue Jays. Other teams such as the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers and Nationals also could emerge for Soto.
Best team fits: Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Ohtani (10 years, $700M); Mike Trout (12 years, $426M); Mookie Betts (12 years, $365M); Judge (9 years, $360M)
Contract prediction: 15 years, $622 million
2. Corbin Burnes, RHP
Age: 29
HT: 6-3 WT: 245
2024 (Orioles): 3.4 WAR
Career: 17.2 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $15.64 million
This will be the fifth consecutive year that Corbin Burnes finishes in the top eight in Cy Young Award voting. Burnes went 15-9 with 181 strikeouts and 1.096 WHIP in his first season in the American League after the Orioles traded for him in February. He’s pitched more than 190 innings three years in a row and is 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA over 199 games (138 starts) in his career. He will be — and should be — the most sought-after free-agent pitcher this offseason.
Best team fits: Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles
Salary comps: Stephen Strasburg (7 years, $245M); Jacob deGrom (5 years, $185M); Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $247 million
3. Roki Sasaki, RHP
Age: 22
HT: 6-2 WT: 187
It is unclear if Roki Sasaki’s team in Japan, the Chiba Lotte Marines, will allow him to leave for MLB this offseason, but with the Marines out of the NPB playoffs, we should know soon. If he is coming, he will be the most coveted international free agent as the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Diamondbacks all committed significant resources to scout him this month, including sending top executives to see him pitch.
How much teams would be willing to offer Sasaki could depend on his medical reports as he didn’t pitch for two months in the middle of the year because of arm troubles, which limited him to 18 games and 111 innings. (He pitched just 91 innings in 2023 due to an oblique injury and has topped the 100-inning mark only once in his career.)
However, he dominated down the stretch this season, averaging 100.5 mph with his fastball and reaching 103 mph. Since Sasaki is under 25, he would be subject to international bonus pool restrictions; if he’s posted after this season, he’d only be allowed to sign a minor-league contract, which is what Ohtani did with the Angels in 2017.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Diamondbacks, Red Sox
Salary comps: None
Contract prediction: Minor-league contract
4. Gerrit Cole, RHP
Age: 34
HT: 6-4 WT: 220
2024 (Yankees): 2.0 WAR
Career: 43.3 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $36 million
Gerrit Cole will not be a free agent this offseason, but I’ve included him in this list because he has the right to opt out of his contract and could theoretically reach the open market. That won’t happen though, as he’s in line to make $36 million a year with the Yankees through 2028, which he could not match in free agency.
Cole spent 2 1/2 months on the injured list and is not fully back to his usual level of performance but seems to be getting better the more he pitches. His four-seam fastball was at 97 mph in the seventh inning of the Yankees’ clinching win over Kansas City in the Division Series, with elite spin at the top of the zone. Cole will start Game 1 of the World Series, and although I don’t expect him to dominate, he should pitch well enough to give the Yankees a chance to win.
Prediction: Cole won’t opt out of his contract
Max Fried acknowledges the fans at Truist Park. Will he be back with the Braves? (Brett Davis / Imagn Images)
5. Max Fried, LHP
Age: 30
HT: 6-4 WT: 190
2024 (Braves): 3.5 WAR
Career: 24.1 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $15 million
Max Fried has a career record of 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and 3.29 FIP. He’s made two All-Star teams, won two Gold Glove awards and finished top-five in the Cy Young Award voting twice. He’s made 28 to 30 starts in three of the last four seasons but has dealt with injuries, including left forearm neuritis each of the last two years. Therefore, his medical reports will determine whether he lands a market-rate deal or has to take a lesser contract. The Braves have tried over the last several years to extend Fried to no avail. They’ll keep trying this offseason and wait to see how he fares in the market, but they definitely want him back.
Best team fits: Braves, Orioles, Mets, Red Sox
Salary comps: Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M); Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162M); Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140M); Tyler Glasnow (5 years, $136.5M)
Contract prediction: 6 years, $174 million
6. Pete Alonso, 1B
Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 6-3 WT: 245
2024 (Mets): 2.6 WAR
Career: 19.8 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $20.5 million
Pete Alonso’s value spiked after he performed this postseason in the biggest moments, including hitting three opposite-field home runs during the Mets’ magical run. He’s beloved in New York and the feeling is mutual. I think a return to the Mets is inevitable, but several contending teams would love to have his 40-homer bat in the middle of their lineups.
Best team fits: Mets, Mariners, Yankees, Nationals
Salary comps: Matt Olson (8 years, $168M); Nolan Arenado (8 years, $260M); Kris Bryant (7 years, $182M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $204 million
7. Alex Bregman, 3B
Age: 30
B: R T: R HT: 6-0 WT: 190
2024 (Astros) 4.1 WAR
Career: 39.6 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $20 million
Alex Bregman would love to finish his career as an Astro, but will the organization do enough to keep him? Houston has a history in free agency of saying goodbye to its star players, such as Carlos Correa and George Springer, who both departed when the Astros weren’t willing to commit to the long-term contracts they could land elsewhere.
Bregman is a proven leader with elite skills in not chasing out of the strike zone. He has all the intangibles that winning organizations want. His market range is well-defined — somewhere between what the Giants gave Matt Chapman last month and Nolan Arenado’s contract with the Rockies/Cardinals. Astros general manager Dana Brown has said the team will make Bregman an offer, but will it be close to how the rest of the industry views him?
Best team fits: Astros, Yankees, Nationals, Mariners, Tigers
Salary comps: Matt Chapman (6 years, $151M); Nolan Arenado (8 years, $260M); Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $185.5 million
8. Blake Snell, LHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-4 WT: 225
2024 (Giants): 2.1 WAR
Career: 23.4 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $32 million
Snell was looking for a long-term contract last offseason, but most executives were concerned about his track record, which includes making 30 or more starts only twice in a nine-year career and never pitching more than 180 2/3 innings in a season. However, in the two years he did make 30 starts (2018, 2023), he won a Cy Young Award both times.
This year he dealt with injuries early but performed well after returning in July; he finished with a 3.12 ERA and 2.43 FIP over 20 starts. Snell will pitch at age 32 next year and I think his lack of durability — he’s pitched more than 130 innings in a season only once since 2018 — will again prevent him from getting a long-term contract. However, after opting out of his $30 million player option, he’ll be able to sign a better deal.
Best team fits: Yankees, Orioles, Mets, Braves, Giants
Salary comps: Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M); Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162M); Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140M); Tyler Glasnow (5 years, $136.5M); José Berríos (7 years, $131M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $105 million
9. Freddy Peralta, RHP
Age: 28
HT: 6-0 WT: 202
2024 (Brewers): 2.6 WAR
Career: 8.9 WAR
Agent: Rep 1 Baseball 2024 salary: $5.7 million
Freddy Peralta will not make it to free agency but I’ll include him in this list until the Brewers exercise their $8 million team option for 2025. Peralta pitched to a 3.68 ERA over 32 starts this season, with 200 strikeouts in 173 2/3 innings. Milwaukee also holds an $8 million team option for 2026.
Prediction: Brewers will exercise $8 million team option for 2025
Anthony Santander hit 44 homers, finishing behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani on the major-league leaderboard. (Tommy Gilligan / Imagn Images)
10. Anthony Santander, RF
Age: 30
B: B T: R HT: 6-2 WT: 230
2024 (Orioles): 2.9 WAR
Career: 11.1 WAR
Agent: GSE Worldwide 2024 salary: $11.7 million
A lot of teams are looking for corner outfielders with power and there won’t be a lot of those players available via free agency or trades. This season Santander had 44 home runs, 102 RBIs and 91 runs scored, all of which were career highs. He’s hit 105 homers over the past three seasons and is still only 30.
Best team fits: Orioles, Nationals, Reds, Blue Jays, Mariners
Salary comps: Brandon Nimmo (8 years, $162M); George Springer (6 years, $150M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $150.5 million
11. Willy Adames, SS
Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 219
2024 (Brewers): 3.1 WAR
Career: 21.5
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $12.25 million
I expected Willy Adames to be traded to the Dodgers after Corey Seager departed as a free agent in 2021, but it never happened because the Brewers remained a contender and never made him available. With Adames now reaching free agency, the Dodgers should be viewed as heavy favorites to land him. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman had Adames in his organization for a couple of years when he was GM of the Rays and has always been a big fan of the player. Adames is a perfect fit for the left side of the Dodgers’ infield.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Brewers, Braves
Salary comps: Dansby Swanson (7 years, $177M); Javier Báez (6 years, $140M); Trevor Story (6 years, $140M)
Contract prediction: 6 years, $150 million
12. Marcell Ozuna, DH
Age: 33
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 225
2024 (Braves): 4.3 WAR
Career: 27.7 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $18 million
Marcell Ozuna was the Braves’ best offensive player this season, slashing .302/.378/.546 with 31 doubles and 39 home runs, and was the league’s second-best designated hitter behind Ohtani. The Braves hold a club option for $16 million for 2025 and they’re expected to exercise it, which will remove Ozuna from my next ranking.
Prediction: Braves will exercise $16 million club option for 2025
13. Christian Walker, 1B
Age: 33
B: R T: R HT: 6-0 WT: 208
2024 (Diamondbacks): 2.6
Career: 15.1 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $10.9 million
Christian Walker is one of the best first basemen in the sport. Despite his years of production, he’s never made an All-Star team; I thought he was the biggest All-Star snub this summer. The two-time Gold Glove Award winner is in line to win his third after leading NL first basemen in outs above average.
Despite missing more than a month with an oblique injury, he finished the season with 26 home runs and 84 RBIs in 130 games. It was the third year in a row he’s hit at least 25 bombs and posted an OPS+ over 120. Several teams have early interest in Walker, with the Astros and Mariners being the best early team fits.
Best team fits: Astros, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Mets
Salary comps: Paul Goldschmidt (5 years, $130M); Anthony Rizzo (2 years, $40M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $72 million
14. Cody Bellinger, CF
Age: 29
B: L T: L HT: 6-4 WT: 203
2024 (Cubs): 2.2 WAR
Career: 24.5 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $30 million
Cody Bellinger didn’t get the long-term deal he sought last offseason and again will probably have to take a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value if he opts out of his three-year deal. The reason: He’s hit 20 or more home runs only once in five years and his production varies dramatically from year to year.
Bellinger has won an MVP, a Rookie of the Year, two Silver Slugger awards, a Gold Glove Award and has been an All-Star twice in his eight-year career. However, his slash line over the past three seasons has been a roller coaster ride, which makes it difficult for teams to assess which version they would be getting in the coming years. Bellinger’s ability to play above-average defense at all three outfield positions and first base improves his market value.
Best team fits: Cubs, Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays, Angels, Astros, Pirates, Phillies, Nationals
Salary comps: Brandon Nimmo (8 years, $162M); George Springer (5 years, $150M); Paul Goldschmidt (5 years, $130M); Nick Castellanos (5 years, $100M); Kyle Schwarber (4 years, $79M)
Contract prediction: 4 years, $112 million
15. Shane Bieber, RHP
Age: 29
HT: 6-3 WT: 200
2024 (Guardians): 0.7 WAR
Career: 17.7 WAR
Agent: Rosenhaus Sports Representation 2024 salary: $13.13 million
Shane Bieber will likely be my pick for best value signing this offseason because of his upside. The AL Cy Young Award winner in 2020, he finished fourth in the voting in 2019 and seventh in 2022. He’s a two-time All-Star and a former Gold Glove winner.
He made only two starts this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will put him out of service until at least next summer. However, if he comes back healthy, whoever signs him might have a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for the second half of the season.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Rangers, Guardians, Padres
Salary comps: N/A. I don’t see a good comp for Bieber in his specific situation.
Contract prediction: Low base salary with incentives for games started and innings pitched, plus option years
Sean Manaea boosted his value with a career year. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
16. Sean Manaea, LHP
Age: 32
HT: 6-5 WT: 245
2024 (Mets): 3.0 WAR
Career: 15.1 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $14.5 million
I don’t think there’s another player who increased his free-agent value more this year than Sean Manaea, who did so thanks to significant mechanical changes that led to a crossfire-type delivery. Manaea went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 184 strikeouts in 181 2/3 innings. He had a .185 batting average against and 0.938 WHIP in the second half of the season, then largely pitched well in three of his four postseason outings, including a dominant NLDS start against the Phillies in which he allowed one run and three hits in seven innings. He has a $13.5 million player option for 2025 that he will decline.
Best team fits: Mets, Orioles, Twins
Salary comps: Hyun Jin Ryu (4 years, $80M); Eduardo Rodriguez (4 years, $80M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63M); Miles Mikolas (3 years, $55.75M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $68 million
17. Jack Flaherty, RHP
Age: 29
HT: 6-4 WT: 225
2024 (Tigers, Dodgers): 3.1 WAR
Career: 13.2 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $14 million
Jack Flaherty was the best starting pitcher traded at the deadline after logging a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 18 starts for the Tigers, who dealt him because he was an impending free agent and they didn’t think they were a contender. (What a run they had!)
The Tigers had a preliminary trade agreement in place with the Yankees, but New York backed out of the deal over concerns about his medical records. Flaherty was then traded to the Dodgers, who had no problem with the medical risk. He delivered for the Dodgers and was their best starter for the rest of the regular season, going 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 10 starts.
He showed his ability to miss bats this season with 194 strikeouts (in 162 innings), his highest total since 2019, when he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting. He’s only 29. If teams aren’t concerned about the medical risk associated with his back issues, he should land a three-year pact.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Mets, Twins, Tigers
Salary comps: Lance McCullers Jr. (5 years, $85M); Mitch Keller (5 years, $77M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Pablo López (4 years, $73.5M); Kyle Hendricks (4 years, $55.5M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $68 million
18. Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP
Age: 35
HT: 6-1 WT: 198
Tomoyuki Sugano has gone 136-75 with a 2.45 ERA and 1,596 strikeouts in 12 NPB seasons with the Yomiuri Giants. This year he logged a 1.67 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 24 starts. He is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award, which in Japan is equivalent to the Cy Young Award. Sugano has a six-pitch mix and he pounds the strike zone with elite command and control.
Best team fits: Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, Orioles, Guardians, Mets
Salary comps: N/A
Contract prediction: None at this time
19. Michael Wacha, RHP
Age: 33
HT: 6-6 WT: 215
2024 (Royals): 3.5 WAR
Career: 16.6 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $16 million
Michael Wacha has been superb and consistent over the past three years, posting ERAs between 3.22 and 3.35 with double-digit wins each season, all while pitching on short-term contracts. His downward plane and changeup (.169 batting average against) are special. He ranked in the 99th percentile in offspeed run value and in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate. Wacha has a $16 million player option for 2025 that I expect he’ll decline so he can enter free agency and land a multiyear contract.
Best team fits: Royals, Pirates, Orioles, Twins, Tigers
Salary comps: Jameson Taillon (4 years, $68M); Miles Mikolas (3 years, $55.75M); Jon Gray (4 years, $56M); Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $54 million
20. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
Age: 34
HT: 6-2 WT: 217
2024 (Rangers): 2.2 WAR
Career: 21.0 WAR
Agent: ACES 2024 salary: $16 million ($20 million player option for 2025)
Nathan Eovaldi had a 3.80 ERA over 29 starts and recorded 12 wins for the second consecutive season with the Rangers. He is expected to opt out of his contract, which was set to pay him $20 million in 2025, and instead will receive a $2 million buyout. I think he’ll get a two-year contract in free agency. Every contending team should be interested in him.
Best team fits: Rangers, Red Sox, Orioles, Padres
Salary comps: Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Blake Snell (2 years, $62M); Seth Lugo (3 years, $45M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $42 million with a team option
Teoscar Hernández posted a 137 OPS+, his highest mark in a full season. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)
21. Teoscar Hernández, LF
Age: 32
B: R T: R HT: 6-2 WT: 215
2024 (Dodgers): 4.3 WAR
Career: 17.1 WAR
Agent: Republik Sports 2024 salary: $23.5 million
Teoscar Hernández made a smart move last offseason in signing with the Dodgers. He accepted a one-year deal with a high AAV and got to join a loaded lineup filled with future Hall of Famers. Hernández then did what he does best — hit home runs, a career-high 33 of them, to go with 99 RBIs. He’s a below-average defender in left field but a strong clubhouse presence with his energy and enthusiasm.
Best team fit: Dodgers, Nationals, Tigers, Royals
Salary comps: George Springer (6 years, $150M); Nick Castellanos (5 years, $100M); Starling Marte (4 years, $78M); Jorge Soler (3 years, $42M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $75 million
22. Walker Buehler, RHP
Age: 30
HT: 6-2 WT: 185
2024 (Dodgers): -1.3 WAR
Career: 12.2 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $8.025 million
The way Walker Buehler pitched for much of the regular season (1-6, 5.38 ERA), it didn’t appear he would regain his past form after returning from a second Tommy John surgery. But he made a big impression in Game 3 of the NLCS, when he dominated the Mets over four shutout innings. Buehler will probably have to sign a one-year contract with a mutual option, then show he can pitch a full season healthy and rebuild his value.
Best team fit: Dodgers
Salary comps: None
Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million with incentives
23. Tanner Scott, LHP
Age: 30
HT: 6-0 WT: 235
2024 (Marlins, Padres): 3.9 WAR
Career: 8.6 WAR
Agent: MVP Sports Group 2024 salary: $5.7 million
Tanner Scott will be the best left-handed high-leverage reliever on the free-agent market. He can be deployed at any time and in any role — closer, set up, match up — to get left- or right-handed hitters out. He had a banner year, registering a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances with 22 saves. Batters hit .134 against his four-seam fastball and .231 against his wipeout slider.
Best team fits: Padres, Orioles, Rangers, Tigers, Royals, Nationals, Giants
Salary comps: Raisel Iglesias (4 years, $58M); Robert Suarez (5 years, $46M)
Contract prediction: 4 years, $60 million
24. Jurickson Profar, LF
Age: 31
B: B T: R HT: 6-0 WT: 184
2024 (Padres): 3.7 WAR
Career: 8.5 WAR
Agent: MVP Sports Group 2024 salary: $1 million
Jurickson Profar was one of the best value signings of the 2023-24 offseason. He inked a one-year contract with the Padres for a base salary of $1 million, then had a career year, finishing second in the NL with a .380 on-base percentage. He hit .280 with 24 home runs, 29 doubles and 10 stolen bases. He also made his first All-Star team. A multiyear deal awaits.
Best team fits: Padres, Twins
Salary comps: Mitch Haniger (3 years, $43.5M); Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (3 years, $42M); Michael Conforto (2 years, $36M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $44 million
25. Eugenio Suárez, 3B
Age: 33
B: R T: R HT: 5-11 WT: 213
2024 (Diamondbacks) 3.1 WAR
Career: 23.6 WAR
Agent: Octagon 2024 salary: $11.285 million
The Diamondbacks acquired Eugenio Suárez from Seattle last offseason in hopes of improving their power. Suárez certainly delivered with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. He finished in the 96th percentile in sweet spot percentage and played solid defense at the hot corner, finishing in the 82nd percentile in range (outs above average). The Diamondbacks hold a $15 million option for 2025 ($2 million buyout) that they’ll likely pick up.
Best team fits: Diamondbacks, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Matt Chapman (6 years, $151M); Chris Taylor (4 years, $60M); Max Muncy (2 years, $24M)
Contract prediction: Diamondbacks exercise $15 million team option for 2025
26. Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-6 WT: 228
War: -1.4
Career: 11.2 WAR
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $25 million
Jordan Montgomery ended up being the worst free-agent signing of last year’s class. He turned down a four-year offer from the Red Sox, instead agreeing to a one-year, $25 million deal with the Diamondbacks that included a $22.5 million player option for 2025. He had a disastrous year.
He went 8-7 with a 6.23 ERA and averaged just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings, the worst rate of his eight-year career. Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick publicly said he hopes Montgomery doesn’t exercise his player option, but the lefty has little choice as no team would offer him a similar contract in free agency this offseason.
Best team fits: Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins, Nationals
Salary comps: None
Prediction: Montgomery exercises 22.5 million player option and then the Diamondbacks try to trade him
27. Ha-Seong Kim, SS
Age: 28
B: R T: R HT: 5-9 WT: 168
2024 (Padres): 2.6 WAR
Career: 15.3 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $8 million
Ha-Seong Kim underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in September to repair a “small tear” in the labrum of his right (throwing) shoulder. He sustained the injury Aug. 18 while diving back to first base on a pick-off play. This season manager Mike Shildt moved Kim from second base, where he won a Gold Glove Award last year, to shortstop, which was a significant defensive upgrade for the Padres. However, Kim hit just .233 with 11 home runs and 22 stolen bases before going on the injured list. He might have to sign a “pillow contract” to show he’s recovered from the injury, then produce like he did in 2023, when he hit 17 home runs and stole 38 bases.
Best team fits: Padres, Brewers, Dodgers, Pirates
Salary comps: J.P. Crawford (5 years, $51M); Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Nico Hoerner (3 years, $35M); Orlando Arcia (3 years, $7.3M)
Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million with incentives and award bonuses
28. Gleyber Torres, 2B
Age: 27
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 205
2024 (Yankees): 1.8 WAR
Career: 16.1 WAR
Agent: Octagon 2024 salary: $14.2 million
Gleyber Torres has wanted to sign a long-term contract with the Yankees but there have never been serious negotiations to keep him in the Bronx for years to come. He is a below-average defender at second base with limited range. He hit .257 with 15 home runs and a 101 OPS+ on the season but batted over .300 when he was moved to the leadoff spot in September and has performed in October, slashing .297/.400/.432 in the playoffs.
Best team fits: Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, Marlins
Salary comps: Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Nico Hoerner (3 years, $35M); J.P. Crawford (5 years, $51M)
Contract prediction: 4 years, $44 million
Tyler O’Neill is coming off his best season since 2021. (Bob DeChiara / Imagn Images)
29. Tyler O’Neill, OF
Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 5-11 WT: 200
2024 (Red Sox): 2.7 WAR
Career: 12.6
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $5.85 million
Tyler O’Neill is like Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger — when he can stay healthy and play up to his potential, he delivers. This year he slashed .241/.336/.511 with 31 home runs in 113 games. However, it was only the second somewhat healthy successful season of his seven-year career — his last one was in 2021 when he hit 34 home runs with the Cardinals, finished eighth in NL MVP voting and won his second Gold Glove Award.
O’Neill had multiple stints on the injured list this year and has played more than 100 games only twice. Despite coming off a productive season, that lack of availability will force him to sign another short-term contract.
Best team fit: Red Sox
Salary comps: Starling Marte (4 years, $78M); Andrew Benintendi (5 years, $75M); Ian Happ (3 years, $61M); Jorge Soler (3 years, 42M); Michael Conforto (2 years, $36M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $32 million
30. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP
Age: 33
HT: 6-0 WT: 210
2024 (Blue Jays, Astros): 1.4 WAR
Career: 4.1
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $10 million
Yusei Kikuchi was 4-9 with a 4.75 ERA over 22 starts with the Blue Jays, who dealt him to Houston at the trade deadline. The Astros quickly changed his pitch sequencing and usage and the results were astounding — he went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 3.07 FIP over 10 starts (60 innings). Kikuchi would be smart to re-sign with the Astros and the feeling should be mutual based on his results and the prospect package they traded to land him.
Best team fits: Astros, Orioles, Tigers, Twins
Salary comps: Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63.3 million; Miles Mikolas (3 years $55.75M); Seth Lugo (3 years; $45M); Tyler Anderson (3 years; $39M); Nathan Eovaldi (2 years, $34M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $42 million
31. Brandon Lowe, 2B
Age: 30
B: L T: R HT: 5-10 WT: 185
2024 (Rays): 2.4 WAR
Career: 16.0 WAR
Agent: The Bledsoe Agency 2024 salary: $8.75 million
Brandon Lowe is another player who just can’t stay off the injured list; he’s played more than 110 games just once in his seven-year career and has averaged 108 games over the last two years. However, his power has been consistent during that span as he hit 21 homers in both years.
He’s only 30, and if he can stay healthy, his power plays, as it did in 2021 when he hit 39 home runs. He finished in the top 10 in AL MVP voting in 2020 and 2021 so there’s no denying his potential.
Tampa Bay holds a $10.5 million team option for 2025 ($1 million buyout) and an $11.5 million option ($500,000 buyout) for 2026. The Rays could certainly pick up the option, but if they don’t, Lowe could be a smart high-risk, high-reward type signing this winter.
Best team fits: Rays, Yankees, Mariners, White Sox, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Brandon Drury (2 years, $17M); Jorge Polanco (5 years, $25.75M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $24 million
32. Nick Martinez, RHP
Age: 34
HT: 6-1 WT: 201
2024 (Reds) War: 4.0 WAR
Career: 8.7 WAR
Agent: RMG Baseball 2024 salary: $14 million
Nick Martinez continues to improve and should land a three-year contract as a free agent this winter. He’s coming off a career-best year after going 10-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 16 starts and 26 relief appearances. Martinez hopes to become a full-time starter with his next team and he deserves that opportunity. He has posted an ERA below 3.50 in each of the past three seasons.
Best team fits: Reds, Padres, Tigers, Orioles, Twins, Red Sox
Salary comps: Seth Lugo (3 years, $45M); Tyler Anderson (3 years, $39M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $40 million
33. Charlie Morton, RHP
Age: 40
HT: 6-5 WT: 214
2024 (Braves): 1.1 WAR
Career: 17.3 WAR
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $20 million
Charlie Morton is Mr. Consistency. In 2024 he reached the 30-starts mark for the sixth straight season. He posted a 4.19 ERA with 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s weighed retirement in recent offseasons, will turn 41 in November and despite another solid season, the consensus around the Braves is that he will call it a career. But if he decides to return for his 18th major-league season, a one-year contract with Atlanta similar to his recent deals could work for both sides.
Best team fit: Braves
Salary comps: Frankie Montas, (1 year, $16M)
Contract prediction: 1 year, $20 million
34. Joc Pederson, OF/DH
Age: 32
B: L T: L HT: 6-1 WT: 220
2024 (Diamondbacks): 2.9 WAR
Career: 15.1 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $12.5 million
Joc Pederson embraces his platoon role, excelling against right-handed pitching with an impressive .275/.392/.531 slash line and 22 homers in 407 plate appearances this season with the Diamondbacks. He has a $14 million mutual option for 2025 with a $3 million buyout, and I think it makes sense for him to take the buyout and try to sign a two-year deal on the open market.
Best team fit: Diamondbacks, Reds, Rockies
Salary comps: Rhys Hoskins (2 years, $34M); Mitch Garver (2 years, $24M); Justin Turner (1 year, $13M); J.D. Martinez (1 year, $12M); Charlie Blackmon (1 year, $13M
Contract prediction: 2 years, $26 million
Carlos Estévez (Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images)
35. Carlos Estévez, RHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-6 WT: 275
2024 (Angels, Phillies): 2.1 WAR
Career: 4.8 WAR
Agent: Premier Talent Sports and Entertainment 2024 salary: $6.75 million
Carlos Estévez had a strong free-agent walk year, posting a 2.38 ERA with the Angels before being traded at the deadline to Philadelphia, where he put up a 2.57 ERA over 20 games. He finished the season with 26 saves and 0.909 WHIP, but also averaged 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings, the lowest rate of his career.
Estévez has 82 career saves and will generate plenty of interest from teams looking for high-leverage relievers. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said it’s unlikely the club will bring back both Estévez and Jeff Hoffman, who is ranked 43rd on this list.
Best team fits: Phillies, Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Pirates
Salary comps: Kendall Graveman (3 years, $24M); José Alvarado (3 years, $22M); Joe Jiménez (3 years, $26M); Ryan Pressly (2 years, $30M); Taylor Rogers (3 years, $33M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $33 million
36. Luis Severino, RHP
Age: 30
HT: 6-2 WT: 218
2024 (Mets): 1.6 WAR
Career: 13.4 WAR
Agent: Rep 1 Baseball 2024 salary: $13 million
Luis Severino had a strong comeback season, making more than 30 starts for the first time since 2018. He went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA over 31 starts and struck out 161 in 182 innings. The two-time All-Star also was solid in the postseason (3.24 ERA in 16 2/3 innings), which can only increase interest in free agency.
Best team fits: Mets, Tigers, Orioles, Pirates, Red Sox
Salary comps: Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63M); Miles Mikolas (3 years, $55.75M); Seth Lugo (3 years, $45M); Zach Eflin (3 years, $40M); Lucas Gioloto (2 years, $38.5M); Marcus Stroman (2 years, $37M); Nathan Eovaldi (2 years, $34M); Reynaldo López, (3 years, $30M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $32 million
37. Jose Quintana, LHP
Age: 35
HT: 6-1 WT: 220
2024 (Mets): 2.5 WAR
Career: 30.5
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $13 million
Jose Quintana was brilliant in his first two starts of this postseason, adding, subtracting and hitting his spots; he allowed no earned runs in 11 combined innings against the Brewers and Phillies.
The soft-tossing lefty pitched to a 3.75 ERA over 31 starts in the regular season, finishing in the 83rd percentile in overall pitching run value and in the 89th percentile in fastball run value. He has good late movement downward that leads to groundballs, ranking in the 79th percentile in ground-ball rate. Over his last 76 starts across three seasons, he has a combined ERA of under 3.50.
Best team fits: Mets, Pirates, Tigers, Twins
Salary comps: Tyler Anderson (3 years, $39M); Tyler Mahle (2 years, $22M); Sean Manaea (2 years, $28M); Michael Wacha (2 years, $32M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $28 million
38. Blake Treinen, RHP
Age: 36
HT: 6-0 WT: 224
2024 (Dodgers): 1.4 WAR
Career: 12.4 WAR
Agent: Apex Baseball 2024 salary: $1 million ($4.5M AAV for two-year, $9M deal)
After missing most of 2022 and all of 2023 because of a torn capsule in his right shoulder that eventually required surgery, Blake Treinen miraculously returned this season as the dominant high-leverage reliever he was in 2021. His sinker is back to the mid-90s with serious drop, and his sweeper is a wipeout pitch that batters hit just .120 against. He posted a 1.93 ERA in 50 appearances.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Cubs
Salary comps: Emilio Pagán (2 years, $16M); Wandy Peralta, (2 years, $16.5M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $17 million
39. Alex Verdugo, LF
Age: 28
B: L T: L HT: 6-0 WT: 210
2024 (Yankees): 0.7 WAR
Career: 11.8
Agent: MVP Sports Group 2024 salary: $8.7 million
Alex Verdugo is well-liked and respected by his teammates, brings high energy to the clubhouse, plays with an edge and is a solid defender in left field. Offensively, he had a down season, slashing just .233/.291/.356. His power is pretty consistent as he has provided between 11 and 13 home runs in the last five full seasons. He plays every day, never complains and is the definition of an average major-league player.
Best team fits: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Mariners
Salary comps: Michael Conforto (2 years, $36M); Mark Canha (2 years, $26.5M); Manuel Margot (2 years, $19M); Hunter Renfroe (2 years, $13M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $26 million
40. Jose Iglesias, 2B
Age: 34
B: R T: R HT: 5-11 WT: 195
2024 (Mets): 3.1 WAR
Career: 14.8 WAR
Agent: MVP Sports 2024 salary: $983,871
I’ll admit it: I love Jose Iglesias’ song “OMG.” And all I can say is OMG when it comes to his season, which put him in the conversation for NL Comeback Player of the Year, though the award will probably go to Chris Sale.
After not playing in the majors in 2023, Iglesias signed a minor-league contract with the Mets but was their starting second baseman by the end of year, playing in more than half of their games and slashing an amazing .337/.381/.448 (137 OPS+) with 16 doubles. He impressed with his approach at the plate — going the other way and grinding throughout at-bats — and his elite defense in the middle of the infield. Iglesias would be a good pickup for several teams, but a reunion with the Mets just makes too much sense for all parties.
Best team fit: Mets
Salary comps: Brandon Drury (2 years, $17M); Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2 years, $15M); Miguel Rojas (2 years, $11M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $12 million
Paul Goldschmidt (Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images)
41. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Age: 37
B: R T: R HT: 6-3 WT: 224
2024 (Cardinals): 1.3 WAR
Career: 62.8 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $26 million
Nothing in baseball makes me sadder than to watch superstar players significantly decline. Time is undefeated, but they want to keep playing because they can still contribute.
In his prime, Paul Goldschmidt was the best first baseman in the sport. Just two years ago he was the NL MVP, leading the league with a .981 OPS. The seven-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner and five-time Silver Slugger is obviously no longer at the level. His on-base percentage has plummeted over the past three years, from .404 to .363 to .302.
He still played more than 150 games this season, which he’s done in nine consecutive full seasons, but perhaps it’s time to reduce that number and try to improve production with more rest and more time as a designated hitter. The Cardinals are not expected to re-sign Goldschmidt, and for the first time in his career, he needs to brace himself for a significant pay cut and a one-year deal.
Best team fits: Yankees, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Brewers
Salary comps: Anthony Rizzo (2 years, $40M); Josh Bell (2 years, $33M)
Contract prediction: 1 year, $15 million
42. Rhys Hoskins, 1B/DH
Age: 31
B: R T: R HT: 6-4 WT: 240
2024 (Brewers): -0.2 WAR
Career: 11.0 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $16 million
Rhys Hoskins held his own in his first year back from ACL surgery, providing much-needed power in the middle of the Brewers’ lineup. He slashed .214/.303/.419 with a career-low .722 OPS but did hit 26 homers and drive in 82 runs. I expect him to be a lot better next season, with the benefit of an extra year of recovery for his left knee.
Hoskins signed a two-year, $34 million deal with Milwaukee last winter and can opt out after this season. He’ll need to sign another short-term contract to try to rebuild his value.
Best team fits: Brewers, Mariners, Twins
Salary comps: Anthony Rizzo (2 years, $40M); Josh Bell (2 years, $33M); Mitch Garver (2 years, $24M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $34 million
43. Jeff Hoffman, RHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-5 WT: 235
2024 (Phillies): 2.0 WAR
Career: 3.5 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $2.2 million
Jeff Hoffman had the best year of his career, making the All-Star team and tallying a 2.17 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in 68 games. He struck out 89 in 66 1/3 innings (12.1 strikeouts per nine). However, he fared poorly in this postseason, allowing six runs in 1 1/3 innings over three games. The Phillies are unlikely to bring back both Hoffman and Carlos Estévez.
Best team fits: Phillies, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, Giants
Salary comps: Taylor Rogers (3 years, $33M); Joe Jiménez (3 years, $26M); Kendall Graveman (3 years, $24M); Emilio Pagán (2 years, $16M); Wandy Peralta (2 years, $16.5M); Matt Strahm (2 years, $15M); Chris Martin (2 years, $13.5M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $27 million
44. Matthew Boyd, LHP
Age: 33
HT: 6-3 WT: 230
2024 (Guardians): 0.7 WAR
Career: 9.9 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $10 million
Matthew Boyd really increased his value in the postseason as he logged a 0.77 ERA over three starts (11 2/3 innings). With a deceptive delivery and an arsenal that includes a fastball, changeup and slider, Boyd commands the strike zone well, adding and subtracting with unique shapes and sizes. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2023 but now looks healthy with a good mindset.
Best team fits: Guardians, Tigers, Orioles, Padres, Braves, Red Sox
Salary comps: Lance Lynn (1 year, $11M); Kyle Gibson (1 year, $13M)
Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million
45. Clay Holmes, RHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-5 WT: 245
2024 (Yankees): 0.7 WAR
Career: 4.2 WAR
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $6 million
Clay Holmes appeared in more than 60 games for the third consecutive season, posting 30 saves before losing the closer job in August to Luke Weaver. However, he rebounded near the end of the season and performed well in high-leverage spots in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. He allowed only one run in his final eight appearances of the regular season and finished with a 3.14 ERA.
Best team fits: Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Royals, Phillies
Salary comps: Ryan Pressly (2 years, $30M); Taylor Rogers (3 years, $33M); Wandy Peralta (2 years, $16.5M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $18.5 million
(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photos: Corbin Burnes: G Fiume / Getty Images; Juan Soto: Mary DeCicco / MLB Photos / Getty Images; Pete Alonso: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos / Getty Images)
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