Labour warn of ‘chaos’ if Plaid or Reform win in Wales, conference to hear

Labour offers “experience and stability” over the “division and fantasy” of their political opponents, Wales’ first minister has told the party’s Autumn conference.

“Wales will fall into chaos if either Plaid or Reform win [the Senedd election] in May,” she told the conference in Liverpool on Sunday.

Labour Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens, who also called reports of a rift between UK and Welsh Labour “nonsense”, told delegates Plaid Cymru’s plan for Welsh independence would cost every working age adult £11,000 in tax rises and austerity cuts.

In response, Plaid Cymru said Labour policies, including keeping the two-child benefit cap were costing working families.

The first minister warned voters not to “gamble” on Reform’s “divisive noise” or Plaid’s “fantasy politics” claiming they would “destroy” everything Labour has built since devolution.

“Reform’s plan? Gut the NHS. Axe free prescriptions. Flog off and frack everything that moves.”

Nigel Farage’s previous party, UKIP, was a “shambles” in the the Senedd, she said, with one former member admitting Russia-linked bribery charges.

“Wales doesn’t need fantasy politics. It needs a practical and exciting vision for the future of our nation which we will set out in our next manifesto.

“What we need is experience and stability in an age of instability.”

In her speech, Stevens accused Plaid Cymru of “fantasy economics” claiming the party’s long-term independence plan would see “billions of pounds of tax rises and biting austerity forced on working people across Wales”.

She pointed to new UK government analysis suggesting independence would “require each working age adult in Wales to pay over £11,000 extra every year in tax to just retain the current level of public services”.

This analysis has not been shared in full with the BBC, and so the claims have not yet been independently verified.

However, the BBC understands the calculations assume an independent Welsh government would continue to spend the same amount on the same areas the UK government currently spends in Wales on areas that it controls.

“If Plaid want to be taken seriously, they need to confirm whether they’re going to tax Welsh families into poverty or cut public services to the bone,” Stevens said.

“Labour has ended austerity in Wales. Don’t let Plaid impose it on Wales again.”

By contrast, she will say the UK government will invest more than £200m to revitalise high streets and regenerate communities in Wales.

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “Jo Stevens has opted to use her conference platform to talk Wales down at a time where more and more Labour voters are coming over to Plaid Cymru with our positive vision for our nation and belief in our potential.

“As Labour scramble for relevance, the people of Wales know that what is actually hitting them hard in the pocket is happening on Labour’s watch.”

Speaking to BBC Politics Wales from Liverpool on Sunday morning, Stevens said reports of tensions between UK and Welsh Labour were “nonsense”.

Some in Welsh Labour are blaming Sir Keir Starmer for Labour’s sinking popularity in recent weeks, while others point to Welsh Labour’s record in government.

Stevens said it was “absolutely right” Welsh Labour had its own identity as “that’s what devolution means”.

She said the “political commentary around this is nonsense”.

“We have shared values and shared priorities, and you can see that in what we’ve delivered over the last 14 months.

“You will see it over the next six months in the run up to the Senedd election,” she said.

Referring to the next general election, due in 2029, Stevens said: “At the end of this parliamentary term, it will be for voters to decide, many years from now, whether or not we have raised living standards, whether public services are better, and whether or not people feel safe and secure in their communities and they feel that the country and its borders is safe and secure.

“That’s what we will be judged on”.

Eluned Morgan’s and Jo Stevens’ messages appear to be stick with us and don’t risk it next May.

Recent polls suggest that voters want to boot Labour out in favour of Plaid Cymru or Reform.

From what we’ve seen of Morgan’s speech so far it is much less about Labour’s record and what it hopes to deliver and much more on the danger of turning elsewhere: an acknowledgement perhaps that record and delivery aren’t impressing voters much at the moment.

Ditto Stevens, who goes further with her claims about potential tax rises in an independent Wales, which Plaid are sure to take issue with.

Some of this echoes what Keir Starmer has been saying at UK level in recent days, describing Reform as an “enemy”.

But Labour in Wales is fighting on two fronts and also against the irony of the one-word slogan that propelled the party to a landslide win at last year’s general election: change.