admin November 21, 2023

For the first time in over a decade, Apple is projected to surpass Samsung Electronics as the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer by annual shipment volume in 2025, according to recent analysis by market research firm Counterpoint Research.

This monumental shift, which would see Apple reclaim the top spot it last held in 2011, is primarily fueled by the strong global reception of the iPhone 17 series and a massive, overdue consumer upgrade cycle.

Apple Projected to Be Biggest Smartphone Company in 2025

Apple’s iPhone shipments are projected to grow by 10% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the 4.6% growth forecast for Samsung’s Galaxy devices. Both companies are, however, expected to grow faster than the 3.3% global smartphone market shipment growth that Counterpoint is predicting for 2025. Counterpoint estimates that Apple will capture 19.4% smartphone market share this year, ahead of Samsung’s 18.7%.

Senior Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said, “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.”

He added, “Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters.”

Counterpoint Predicts Apple Will Extend Its Lead Over Samsung

Counterpoint forecasts that Apple will hold the position of the leading smartphone company until 2029 and will widen the gap with Samsung. The research firm projects that a strong product pipeline, including the rumored launch of a more budget-friendly iPhone 17e model and the anticipated debut of Apple’s first foldable iPhone in the coming years, would help drive volumes for Apple, whose shipments were tepid over the last couple of years.

While Samsung remains a powerhouse with a broad product portfolio spanning all price points, Apple’s focus on the high-end market, coupled with its strong brand loyalty and favorable market dynamics, has created the perfect storm to disrupt Samsung’s decade-long dominance in global smartphone shipments.

Apple Mostly Mitigated Tariff Impact

In its note, Counterpoint said that “Apple also benefited from lower-than-expected tariff impacts globally and a truce in the US-China trade and tech war.” Notably, Apple has increased sourcing from India, and the bulk of iPhones sold in the US are now made in that country.

At the same time, the company has demonstrated its strong commitment to the Chinese market, its biggest after the US. Apple CEO Tim Cook visited China last month, where he not only engaged with local pop culture, including meeting the creator of the popular Labubu doll, but also held high-level meetings with top Chinese government officials, including Vice-Premier He Lifeng and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.

The meetings reportedly focused on strengthening Apple’s commitment to the Chinese market, promoting cooperation, and discussing the company’s growth in the region. Importantly, Cook’s presence coincided with the regulatory clearance for the iPhone Air’s eSIM functionality, paving the way for the long-delayed launch.

The combination of the CEO’s personal endorsement and the removal of the regulatory block seemed to have unleashed pent-up consumer demand, with the iPhone Air getting sold out in major metropolitan centers like Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin in minutes.

Apple Intelligence Is Not Available in China

Apple’s ambitious suite of generative AI features, collectively known as Apple Intelligence, remains conspicuously unavailable in mainland China.

The primary reason for the delay is China’s comprehensive regulatory framework for generative AI services. Unlike many Western markets, China requires all AI models that generate text or images for public consumption to be tested and approved by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) before launch.

Meanwhile, despite the handicap of not having these features in China, iPhone sales have fared reasonably well in the world’s second biggest economy.

iPhone Revenues Hit a Record High in September Quarter

Apple closed its fiscal year 2025 with a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, reporting a September-quarter revenue record of $102.5 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year (YoY). This robust performance was largely driven by the continued strength of the iPhone business and a record-breaking quarter for the Services division.

The company’s net quarterly profit soared to $27.5 billion, or $1.85 per diluted share, significantly surpassing Wall Street expectations. This solidifies Apple’s position as it heads into the crucial holiday season.

The iPhone segment demonstrated resilience and growth, largely attributed to the initial, highly successful launch of the iPhone 17 lineup (including the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and the new iPhone Air).

iPhone revenue for Q4 2025 reached $49.03 billion, marking a 6% YoY increase and setting a September-quarter record. While the quarter only included a few weeks of sales for the new models, early demand for the iPhone 17 series, particularly the premium Pro/Pro Max models, was quite strong. Initial sales in key markets like the US and China were reportedly tracking 14% above the prior year’s launch, underscoring the success of the new design, improved cameras, and the new A19 Pro chip.

CEO Tim Cook highlighted that the installed base of active devices reached a new all-time high across all product categories, which is a critical long-term driver for Services revenue. The segment saw strong growth across most major markets, with Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the Asia Pacific posting healthy increases. However, revenue in Greater China saw a slight dip, a soft spot attributed to competitive pressures and supply timing issues.

Apple Is Looking to add Satellite Features to iPhones

Notably, Apple has been rolling out new “Apple Intelligence” features to add AI capabilities to iPhones. It is also reportedly planning a suite of features that will dramatically move beyond the current Emergency SOS via Satellite and Roadside Assistance services. This development signals a significant long-term shift towards making the iPhone a truly off-grid communication and navigation device. Apple’s existing satellite features operate on the Globalstar satellite network, an infrastructure Apple has helped finance.

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