Climate Change Made South Sudan Heat Wave More Likely, Study Finds

After a blistering February heat wave in South Sudan’s capital city caused dozens of students to collapse from heat stroke, officials closed schools for two weeks. It was the second time in less than a year that the country’s schools closed to protect young people from the deadly effects of extreme heat.

Climate change, largely caused by the burning of fossil fuels in rich nations, made at least one week of that heat wave 10 times as likely, and 2 degrees Celsius hotter, according to a new study by World Weather Attribution. Temperatures in some parts of the region soared above 42 degrees Celsius, or 107 degrees Fahrenheit, in the last week of February.

The analysis used weather data, observations and climate models to get the results, which have not been peer reviewed but are based on standardized methods.

South Sudan, in the tropical band of East Africa, was torn apart by a civil war that led to independence from Sudan in 2011. It’s also one of the countries least responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions that are heating up the globe. “The continent has contributed a tiny fraction of global emissions, but is bearing the brunt of climate change,” said Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.

Heat waves are one of the deadliest extreme weather events and have become more frequent and more severe on a warming planet. But analysis methods connecting heat to mortality vary between and within countries, and death tolls can be underreported and are often unknown for months after an event.

Prolonged heat is particularly dangerous for children, older adults and pregnant women. For the last three weeks, extreme heat has settled over a large region of continental Eastern Africa, including parts of Kenya and Uganda. Residents have been told to stay indoors and drink water, a difficult directive for countries where many people work outdoors, electricity is sporadic, access to clean water is difficult and modest housing means there are few cooling systems.

In Juba, South Sudan’s capital and largest city, only 1 percent of the city has green space to help cool residents who cannot get relief at home, according to the study. But there are adaptations that could be made.

“Improving ventilation, planting trees and painting schools lighter colors can help reduce temperatures in classrooms, while adapting the school calendar and class schedules can help avoid severe disruptions to education,” said Kiswendsida Guigma, a climate scientist at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, a research group in Burkina Faso in a news release.

South Sudan is particularly vulnerable after years of war and food insecurity. In 2018 a peace deal ended a civil war that killed more than 400,000, but tensions remain within the country and political arrests were reported this week.

“Climate change is clearly making life even harder in South Sudan, a country already facing economic challenges and periods of instability, where very few children finish primary education,” Dr. Guigma said.

As global temperatures continue to rise, similar extreme heat waves in February could occur once every 10 years, according to the study. And if warming doubles by the end of the century, similar heat waves could occur annually. High temperatures are forecast to continue in the region through March.