Six Nations 2024: Can Wales avoid Wooden Spoon in basement decider?

Wales have just a few days to achieve what they have not now managed in five months – to win a Test match.

But glimmers of hope will count for nothing if Wales finish winless at the bottom of the Six Nations.

Former Wales captain Sam Warburton said: “Wales have to win. I know we’re talking about progress, but that would be bad to be nil from five.”

Wales would already have the Wooden Spoon had Italy’s Paulo Garbisi not struck the post with his late penalty against France two weeks ago.

On Saturday they face a resurgent Azzurri team in Cardiff to avoid finishing bottom of the Six Nations for the first time in 21 years.

Pressure on young Wales

Many of this young Wales team are still learning about Test rugby and they will not have experienced such a do-or-die game as this weekend inside the Principality Stadium.

Gatland says his players must embrace the challenge, refuse to hide from the pressure and understand what it takes to win such vital games.

But they are having to learn and learn fast at the sharp end of international rugby.

“It’s going to be an epic against Italy, it’s do or die,” former Wales lock Ian Gough told Radio Wales Breakfast.

“We lost to Italy in 2007 and then everything was on the last game against England or we were getting the Wooden Spoon.

“The pressure was horrendous and it will be on this young squad, but they need to feel that. That is international rugby and you can’t hide from it.”

Size matters

Gatland knows the biggest thing Wales lack, besides experience, is size.

He saw it in the warm up against Ireland, he said, and it showed against France who simply muscled their way to victory after Wales had led 24-23 with 15 minutes to go on Saturday.

“Wales’ defence had looked good in the first few weeks and they contained teams close in, but the difference in physicality was stark against France,” added Warburton.

“Skills are important, kicking is important but if you can’t win the collisions in attack or the tackle then you’re going to struggle.

“This young Wales team was heroic but the French power, especially off the bench, was immense and trumped Wales.”

Wales have made the fewest linebreaks (16), fewest metres (1,330), slowest ruck speed and lowest performing scrum (62%) in the Six Nations.

Selection dilemmas

So could that have an impact on Wales’ selection this week?

Wales are not blessed with depth but George North, omitted against France, is likely to return in place of Joe Roberts for such a crucial game, despite the younger player’s try on his Six Nations debut.

But does North start alongside World Cup partner Nick Tompkins, also dropped last week, or his Ospreys team-mate Owen Watkin?

“Wales looked good in attack against France and Watkin did really well,” said ex-Wales fly-half James Hook.

“His left-foot step caused France problems and he deserves to start again at 12. You would imagine North comes back at 13 for his experience and ball-carrying and then you have that Ospreys combination working in midfield.”

Tommy Reffell is a major concern after injuring his knee against France, and Wales sorely missed his work at the breakdown. Taine Basham is the only other natural openside flanker in the squad.

Dafydd Jenkins played his first senior game at blind-side flanker and weighed in with a remarkable 26 tackles, without missing one.

However, he could revert to the second-row with flanker Alex Mann rested after a bruising shift in Dublin.

Cardiff’s McKenzie Martin, a replacement in the past two games, could also be deployed in the back-row.

“We need more ball-carriers which is why we’ve missed Taulupe Faletau,” said former Ospreys head coach Sean Holley.

“I’m not sure Mann is enough of a carrier but someone like McKenzie Martin fits that bill.”

Christ Tshiunza scored a try on his return from a four-month foot injury in a friendly for Exeter Chiefs on Friday night.

Wing Mason Grady could be considered in place of Josh Adams, who was largely on the back foot against Damien Penaud.

Gatland’s ‘blame game’

Former Wales lock and BBC rugby pundit Derwyn Jones heavily criticised Gatland’s substitutions during the loss to France, particularly in bringing off the half-backs.

Tomos Williams scored a try and Sam Costelow impressed but were replaced, with Wales ahead, by Gareth Davies and Ioan Lloyd.

Gatland said the move was to bring on “fresh legs” and thought Davies’ defensive strengths and Lloyd’s attacking threat could see out the game.

But Jones said: “Wales were competitive in every aspect for an hour but Gatland and his coaching team made a couple of changes that changed the game.

“Tomos Williams was having an excellent game and it was interesting that Gatland said after that Costelow had played well, but he substituted both players and that changed the flow of the game.

“It’s disappointing that Gatland didn’t take responsibility for that and blamed the players. Two weeks ago he blamed the regions.

“He’s done a great job in previous years but it doesn’t feel like Gatland is able to deal with the pressure of being an international coach in the same way he was in the past.”

Italy favourites?

The contrast in the two camps could not be more stark this week.

Italy are four points ahead of Wales in the standings with a superior points difference and head to Cardiff on the back of beating Scotland.

They also won the last time they visited the Principality Stadium when Garbisi converted Edoardo Padovani’s try with the last kick of the game for a first win in the Welsh capital.

Warburton said: “I’d be taking what happened two years ago very personally and I’d be making it personal if I was in that Wales coaching set up. You have to, to bring out that extra emotion.

“But you can’t just try and beat up Italy. Their attack is one of the best in the Six Nations so you need an all-court game to win because they’re so good.”