Trump Trade Policies and Federal Cuts Shake Consumer Confidence

Americans are increasingly anxious about their jobs and finances as the Trump administration’s trade policies and government cutbacks stoke concern about the economy.

Consumer confidence tumbled this month to its lowest level since January 2021, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday, extending a decline that has been underway since shortly after President Trump was elected last fall. The short-term outlook for “income, business and labor market conditions” fell to its lowest reading in 12 years, the business group reported, signaling consumer angst about a deterioration in economic conditions in the coming year.

Economists have warned that Mr. Trump’s plans for sweeping tariffs on the United States’ biggest trading partners could reignite inflation. Whiplash from shifting trade policies, and investors’ concern about a potential slowdown in the American economy, fueled a stock-market sell-off earlier this month. Households are bracing for higher inflation over the next year, according to the survey, with 12-month inflation expectations rising to 6.2 percent, from an outlook of 5.8 percent in February. (Over the most recent 12 months, the inflation rate was 2.8 percent, according to the Consumer Price Index for February.)

Consumers are “spooked” by the Trump administration’s trade wars, cuts to the federal government by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency and the recent stock market sell-off, said Bill Adams, the chief economist for Comerica Bank.

“When people fear for their jobs, they will cut back on discretionary spending on vacations and going out, and delay big purchases like new houses, cars or appliances,” Mr. Adams said. He added that the length of the downturn in consumer sentiment was hard to predict.

Stephen Miran, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, played down the drop in consumer confidence in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. “Folks often let their political views influence their views of the economy,” he said.

The latest Conference Board survey added to growing evidence that uncertainty about tariff policies is making consumers less confident about the economic outlook and more worried about inflation. Data from the University of Michigan released this month showed consumer sentiment plummeting 11 percent from February as Americans of all ages, income groups and political affiliations turned even more downbeat.

Some company executives warn of a pullback in consumer spending, too. Delta Air Lines cut its financial forecast for the first three months of the year, citing lower demand for domestic travel, while the chief executive of the clothing retailer Burlington cautioned its investors that tariffs “could hurt discretionary spending.”