Factcheck: Kemi Badenoch’s claim that net zero is ‘impossible’ by 2050 | Kemi Badenoch

Net zero by 2050 is ‘impossible’ without ‘bankrupting the country’

Badenoch has cited no evidence to support this claim.

Analysis by the London School of Economics has found that, though reaching net zero by 2050 initially costs between 1% and 2% of GDP a year, it will save money by about 2040. To put that into context, the UK spends about 11% of GDP on healthcare, and 10% on social security including pensions. The money spent on reaching net zero is also an investment, according to the most recent carbon budget; for example, upgrading the electricity grid or updating homes.

A former minister made this point in parliament in 2022: “Our latest estimates put the costs of net zero at under 2% of GDP – broadly similar to when we legislated for it two years ago – with scope for costs of low-carbon technologies to fall faster than expected.” Wise words from Badenoch herself.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has analysed the Climate Change Committee’s plans and found: “From 2040 onwards, net operating savings are projected to outweigh investment costs. And by 2050, the CCC projects a £19bn annual saving relative to its baseline emissions scenario.” If similar savings of the same size continued in the years beyond 2050, investment costs would be completely offset by 2070. The same report found “unmitigated climate change would ultimately have catastrophic economic and fiscal consequences for the UK”.

‘No one knows why’ the target is 2050

The Conservative leader incorrectly claimed “no one knows why” the target for net zero is 2050.

In fact, the IPCC reported in 2018 that in order to limit global heating to no more than 1.5C above preindustrial levels – a habitable temperature – and to stop catastrophic climate breakdown, global carbon emissions should reach net zero around mid-century. This means that developed nations such as the UK should meet the target by 2050, and developing countries have set targets in the 2050s and 2060s.

This is legally binding for the UK because under the Paris climate treaty, which it signed in 2015, it agreed to keep the rise in global temperatures “well below” 2C and to “make efforts” to keep it to 1.5C.

Theresa May, who signed the target into law, responded to Badenoch, on social media saying that the target “is supported by the scientific community and backed by the independent Climate Change Committee as being not just necessary but feasible and cost-effective”.

The UK is only responsible for 1% of global emissions and so can slow down

The UK has managed to decarbonise quickly so far this century, but is still among the top emitting countries (No 21 in 2022). On top of this, we are historically a big emitter. A Carbon Brief analysis in 2021 found that the UK was the eighth largest country in terms of cumulative emissions. It would be very difficult in climate negotiations to make the argument that countries which are still developing should avoid the fossil fuels that we exploited and benefited from during our Industrial Revolution, if the UK is no longer trying to reduce its emissions in the present day.

Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit analysis has found that every country totalling between 0% and 1% of global carbon emissions – which includes many of the world’s richest countries – adds up to 29%. That’s more than China, which totals 27%.

Net zero ‘was decided in 90 minutes without a single vote’

There could have been a vote if MPs who attended the debate called for one. Badenoch was there in 2019 when Chris Skidmore, the then energy minister, introduced the target in parliament. Because no objections were raised, there was no vote.

In May last year, Badenoch told parliament the target “happened under a previous Conservative government, but with the consent of the whole house”.

The target is ‘impossible’

Again, Badenoch has not set out why she believes the target is impossible to meet. The experts on the independent Climate Change Committee set out potential pathways to meet net zero by 2050 earlier this year, describing it as challenging but possible.

The CCC said its seventh carbon budget was “an ambitious, deliverable pathway for the UK to reach net zero by 2050, based on detailed modelling of cost-effective, feasible decarbonisation options”.

‘Even if we hit absolute zero, we will not have net zero around the world, if other countries are not following us. And they are not’

This is untrue. The large majority of the world is signed up to net zero targets: 142 countries covering 76% of all global emissions, 78% of global GDP, and 84% of the world’s population. China and India are accelerating investment in renewable energy, as is the EU, and the the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Investment report says: “The world now invests almost twice as much in clean energy as it does in fossil fuels.”

There has ‘never, ever been a detailed plan’ to reach net zero

The Climate Change Committee, established in 2008, puts out carbon budgets every five years which set out detailed pathways to reach net zero by 2050. The government must respond each time with its plan.

The Tory government’s 2021 strategy, for example, was ruled unlawful for failing to properly and in a detailed way set out how it would reduce emissions. It subsequently published more than 3,000 pages of documents detailing the net zero plan. The Labour government is due to submit its next plan by spring 2026.